Comments on: NFL Slotting http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/archives/2009/08/24/nfl-slotting/ Daily posts of Excel tips…and other stuff Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:06:07 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Michael http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/archives/2009/08/24/nfl-slotting/#comment-40868 Michael Wed, 02 Sep 2009 17:35:00 +0000 http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/?p=2916#comment-40868 <p>And Smith broke his foot yesterday!</p> And Smith broke his foot yesterday!

]]> By: Michael http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/archives/2009/08/24/nfl-slotting/#comment-40854 Michael Mon, 31 Aug 2009 17:39:00 +0000 http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/?p=2916#comment-40854 <p>From here:<br> <a href="http://blogs.nfl.com/2009/08/30/smith-ends-holdout-signs-deal-with-bengals/" rel="nofollow">http://blogs.nfl.com/2009/08/30/smith-ends-holdout-signs-deal-with-bengals/</a></p> <p>"Andre Smith's holdout is finally over, ending a month-long standoff with the Bengals. The team announced the sixth overall pick had signed shortly before he was to take the field for his first practice with the Bengals.</p> <p>"Steve Wyche reports it's a four-year, $26 million deal that includes $21 million guaranteed, according to a source with knowledge of the situation. The Bengals have an option to extend the contract after the 2010 season, which would make the deal a six-year, $42 million contract with $29.5 million guaranteed. Smith also has incentives that could increase the maximum value of a six-year deal to $50 million."</p> <p>Let's see: $50M/6yr = $8.33M/yr</p> <p>Not having Dick as his agent cost Smith $3M! :roll:</p> <p><i>...mrt</i></p> From here:
http://blogs.nfl.com/2009/08/30/smith-ends-holdout-signs-deal-with-bengals/

“Andre Smith’s holdout is finally over, ending a month-long standoff with the Bengals. The team announced the sixth overall pick had signed shortly before he was to take the field for his first practice with the Bengals.

“Steve Wyche reports it’s a four-year, $26 million deal that includes $21 million guaranteed, according to a source with knowledge of the situation. The Bengals have an option to extend the contract after the 2010 season, which would make the deal a six-year, $42 million contract with $29.5 million guaranteed. Smith also has incentives that could increase the maximum value of a six-year deal to $50 million.”

Let’s see: $50M/6yr = $8.33M/yr

Not having Dick as his agent cost Smith $3M! :roll:

…mrt

]]> By: Dick Kusleika http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/archives/2009/08/24/nfl-slotting/#comment-40836 Dick Kusleika Sat, 29 Aug 2009 03:37:00 +0000 http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/?p=2916#comment-40836 <p>Good points SAR. Let met throw something else into the mix. I heard that the amount of an NFL player's retirement is a function of how much he makes his first year. You leave a couple of hundred on the table now, it could cost you millions over your lifetime. I can't find any confirmation of that though.</p> <p>Watching Hardknocks, I get the feeling that the chick is really f*cking up the negotiations. Is that the way you see it?</p> Good points SAR. Let met throw something else into the mix. I heard that the amount of an NFL player’s retirement is a function of how much he makes his first year. You leave a couple of hundred on the table now, it could cost you millions over your lifetime. I can’t find any confirmation of that though.

Watching Hardknocks, I get the feeling that the chick is really f*cking up the negotiations. Is that the way you see it?

]]> By: SAR http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/archives/2009/08/24/nfl-slotting/#comment-40825 SAR Fri, 28 Aug 2009 16:24:00 +0000 http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/?p=2916#comment-40825 <p>While the 'fit' of the trend line can be argued down to the minutiae...bottom line is that the #6 Lardass should get ~$9mil based on relative data available. What is fascinating to me is that the data (pick versus slotting) does not take into effect the extraneous variables (when the picks signed, how long the hold out, amount of weed smoked, etc). Some picks sign right away. Others wait until the domino above them falls...the rest falling in line. After watching 'Hardknocks' on HBO, I wonder if the Lardass' agent takes any of the quantitative data into account with his client. What would really pique my interest is the 'right' amount of days to play chicken against the franchise. In other words, there has to be a point of diminishing returns where too much stalling/posturing costs money (for both sides). Given the nature of the business, a good agent should get their client signed and into camp as soon as possible so that their growth accelerates to additional payday sooner on their next contract.</p> While the ‘fit’ of the trend line can be argued down to the minutiae…bottom line is that the #6 Lardass should get ~$9mil based on relative data available. What is fascinating to me is that the data (pick versus slotting) does not take into effect the extraneous variables (when the picks signed, how long the hold out, amount of weed smoked, etc). Some picks sign right away. Others wait until the domino above them falls…the rest falling in line. After watching ‘Hardknocks’ on HBO, I wonder if the Lardass’ agent takes any of the quantitative data into account with his client. What would really pique my interest is the ‘right’ amount of days to play chicken against the franchise. In other words, there has to be a point of diminishing returns where too much stalling/posturing costs money (for both sides). Given the nature of the business, a good agent should get their client signed and into camp as soon as possible so that their growth accelerates to additional payday sooner on their next contract.

]]> By: Michael http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/archives/2009/08/24/nfl-slotting/#comment-40779 Michael Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:47:00 +0000 http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/?p=2916#comment-40779 <p>Dick -</p> <p>Over at Jon's place:</p> <p><a href="http://peltiertech.com/WordPress/choosing-a-trendline-type/" rel="nofollow">http://peltiertech.com/WordPress/choosing-a-trendline-type/</a><br> <a href="http://peltiertech.com/WordPress/trendline-fitting-errors/" rel="nofollow">http://peltiertech.com/WordPress/trendline-fitting-errors/</a></p> <p>...mrt</p> Dick -

Over at Jon’s place:

http://peltiertech.com/WordPress/choosing-a-trendline-type/
http://peltiertech.com/WordPress/trendline-fitting-errors/

…mrt

]]> By: JoshG http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/archives/2009/08/24/nfl-slotting/#comment-40777 JoshG Tue, 25 Aug 2009 15:53:00 +0000 http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/?p=2916#comment-40777 <p>Dick,<br> Engineering school? Seriously though, I think it mostly comes with practice. As Tushar said, the type of fit has to make sense for the application. I had a professor who liked to say that with enough adjustable parameters (e.g. a higher-order polynomial fit), you could fit an elephant. His point was that any set of data could be made to look good with the right equation, but it may not make practical sense.</p> <p>-Josh</p> Dick,
Engineering school? Seriously though, I think it mostly comes with practice. As Tushar said, the type of fit has to make sense for the application. I had a professor who liked to say that with enough adjustable parameters (e.g. a higher-order polynomial fit), you could fit an elephant. His point was that any set of data could be made to look good with the right equation, but it may not make practical sense.

-Josh

]]> By: Dick Kusleika http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/archives/2009/08/24/nfl-slotting/#comment-40776 Dick Kusleika Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:21:00 +0000 http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/?p=2916#comment-40776 <p><a href="http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/excel/nflslotting.xls.zip" rel="nofollow">nflslotting.xls.zip</a></p> <p>Where can I find information on which type of trendline to pick? You guys seem to have an idea just by looking at the data, but I don't.</p> nflslotting.xls.zip

Where can I find information on which type of trendline to pick? You guys seem to have an idea just by looking at the data, but I don’t.

]]> By: Rob http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/archives/2009/08/24/nfl-slotting/#comment-40775 Rob Tue, 25 Aug 2009 13:31:00 +0000 http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/?p=2916#comment-40775 <p>if you aren't already convinced that polynomial curve fitting is a bad idea, see <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runge%27s_phenomenon" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runge%27s_phenomenon</a></p> if you aren’t already convinced that polynomial curve fitting is a bad idea, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runge%27s_phenomenon

]]> By: rgh http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/archives/2009/08/24/nfl-slotting/#comment-40774 rgh Tue, 25 Aug 2009 10:48:00 +0000 http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/?p=2916#comment-40774 <p>I would say the above is almost certainly logarithmic. Removing pick 5 and 17 and making a scatter plot of ln(pick) vs ln(salary) produces a linear line with an r-swaured of around 94%.</p> I would say the above is almost certainly logarithmic. Removing pick 5 and 17 and making a scatter plot of ln(pick) vs ln(salary) produces a linear line with an r-swaured of around 94%.

]]> By: saket http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/archives/2009/08/24/nfl-slotting/#comment-40772 saket Tue, 25 Aug 2009 07:11:00 +0000 http://www.dailydoseofexcel.com/?p=2916#comment-40772 <p>Well done, sir! ::applause::</p> Well done, sir! ::applause::

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